How States Use Inflated DOT Forecasts to Rationalize More Highways

Americans are simply not driving as much as they used to ; most experts agree we hit “ peak car . ” But that ’s not the history according to the Department of Transportation ’s forecasts , which year after year show skyrocket demand for more roads — and class after year are turn out wrong . Still , states use this data to fund lots of new mental synthesis . Wait — what ?

Over at Vox , Brad Plumer research what ’s sadly becomestandard practice in expatriation infrastructure : State way apply outdated dealings projection to prove that so many more cars will be traveling along these routes in the future that they must get more funding for highway projects . This same information help to fire rampant — and often unnecessary — road grammatical construction across the area .

How much is the DOT inflating its projections?This one chart say it all . The various low-spirited and red lines shown here represent aggregated state DOT forecasts for fomite - miles traveled as far back as 1999 . The shows Federal Highway Administration report on how many mil were really move around . Each year the prognosticate curve is just about the same — explosive , steep growth — but the realness never cede .

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All is not lose : As Plumer reports , states are starting to fight back , questioning the prognosis and push cities to at least supply more documentation for why Modern road are needed . He looks at one motorway in Illinois , a propose $ 1.5 billion , 47 - land mile toll road that was swat down by citizens who begged the province to re - examine the data :

That project took a hit when Chicago ’s Metropolitan Agency for Planningpointed outthat only 20,000 vehicles were likely to use the state highway each day — about one - third of planned capacity and well below initial acoustic projection . That meant cost would n’t be able to breed the expressway ’s price , and because of the way the project was financed , taxpayers would be on the sweetener for the shortfall , potentially diverting public money away from utilitarian projects elsewhere .

This retiring May , environmental groupsfiled suitagainst the pike , quote the injury the projection could do to prairie as well as those inflated population and dealings prognosis . They did n’t have to wait long . On June 2 , Illinois Gov. Bruce Raunerannouncedthat he was removing the expressway from his list of approved undertaking , and it ’s freeze for now .

Dji Drone