We ’re on the leaflet of what could be one of the worst snowstorms to strike the U.S. East Coast in late retentiveness , and in many places it could be the worst on record .
The conditions models have been unusually uniform in showing a major snowstorm moving across the country and mishandle up off the Mid - Atlantic coast , bringing heavy snow to everywhere from Tennessee to Rhode Island . A large expanse will see one to two feet of snow from this violent storm , including some hard populated city along Interstate 95 ( also known as the I-95 corridor ) . Here ’s what you may expect from what will likely go down in history as the Blizzard of 2016 .
THE BIG (MESSY) PICTURE
As of today , Wednesday , January 20 , we sleep together with near 100 percentage certainty that there will be a nor’easter along the East Coast this weekend and that it will bring forth a significant amount of C across a far-flung area . We eff with increasing assurance that the bullseye for the leaden Baron Snow of Leicester will be central and western Virginia , likely extending into the Washington D.C. area and possibly areas north and east . We are fairly confident ( greater than 50 pct ) that the storm will lend laboured snow to the I-95 corridor , including Philadelphia , New York City , and possibly even far north , toward Boston . We are pretty confident ( around 50 percent ) that there will be an icing tempest and freezing rain from northerly Georgia through easterly North Carolina . However , the cutoff between C and Methedrine will be abrupt , and we do n’t know just yet where that line will be .
While we bonk that there ’s a electric potential for extreme snowfall collection — in some metropolis , possibly touch the highest blow aggregate ever recorded from one tempest — we still are n’t quite certain about exact accumulations . As I explained in the beginning this week , snow and ice totals arecompletely dependent upon the precise track of a nor’easter .
NOAA
STORM MODELS DIFFER ON THE STORM’S PATH BUT AGREE THAT IT’LL BE BAD
Wednesday morning ’s trial of the GFS ( American world-wide ) weather model point the track of the nor’easter taking a more northern route across the Mid - Atlantic . If the tempest stays far north as it heads toward the ocean , the heaviest blow sum will stay farther north , slamming the I-95 corridor from Washington to New York City . A northerly track like this would bestow a major ice storm to North Carolina , with one - quarter to one - one-half ( or more ) of an inch of internal-combustion engine possible , in addition to several inches of Baron Snow of Leicester and sleet .
On the other hired man , Wednesday morning ’s outpouring of the European weather example shows a more southwards track , which would put the laborious coke over almost the entire country of Virginia west of Williamsburg ( along the coast ) , an area that would see one to two fundament of blow , with higher totals possible . This event would bring a foot of snow far south into North Carolina , burying cities like Greensboro and Raleigh , pushing ice from freezing rainfall into the southern part of the state , admit Greenville , Charlotte , and Fayetteville . The I-95 corridor through Connecticut would also stand to see around a foot of snow — or more in spots — from this final result .
The difference of opinion between these two model upshot — among other models — introduces doubtfulness into the forecast regarding exactly who will see how much snow or ice . If you check your local news groove or National Weather Service forecast right now , do n’t get too attached to the betoken C and meth sum for your emplacement . They ’ll in all probability be dissimilar by this time tomorrow .
WPC forecast snowfall between Wednesday evening ( Jan 20 ) and Saturday even ( Jan 23 ) . | Map : Dennis Mersereau
WHEN WILL IT HIT?
Above is the snowfall prognosis release to begin with today by the Weather Prediction Center ( WPC ) , a leg of the U.S. National Weather Service . This product designate their 50thpercentile forecast snowfall , which means it ’s what they think is most in all likelihood going to happen establish on the data they had when they produced the forecast . Again , this will modify with meter , and it ’s authoritative to note that this prognosis go through Saturday evening , when the storm will be ongoing . Snowfall totals along I-95 will believably be higher than what the above single-valued function show .
The timing of both of these scenario is about the same . The violent storm will move tardily , with downfall embark on on Thursday night and Friday cockcrow in the SE , and with snow spreading over the Mid - Atlantic on Friday . It should start snow along the I-95 corridor on Friday even through Saturday break of the day , and the integral tempest will last through other Sunday good morning , ending sooner from Dixie to northward .
There will be a sharp cutoff in snowfall accumulations to the north of the storm , and the cutoff between snow , freezing rainwater , and unconstipated rainfall will be sharp on the south last of the storm . This is why the cartroad is so authoritative — that crosscut could signify the difference between a historical snowfall , a destructive ice issue , or a wet , disconsolate twenty-four hours .
POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES
In summation to heavy snow , strong jazz from the low-pitched - pressure organisation itself will make rash atmospheric condition along and near the coast . snowstorm conditions are possible in and around Washington D.C. , Baltimore , and Philadelphia during the tiptop of the storm . A snowstorm appears when wind 35 mph or stronger create blowing snow that lowers visibility to one - fourth part of a Admiralty mile or less for at least three hours — in other words , whiteout conditions .
Strong wind combined with a full moonshine will also bring major coastal implosion therapy to the Mid - Atlantic states , create a storm rush several feet above gamey tide . Vulnerable areas along the sea-coast will easily flood during this storm , and the farting and waves could cause major beach erosion and structural damage . Major power outage are potential due to the compounding of profound snow , potent wind , and water ice from freeze out rain .
predictor will get a better idea of what the future maintain as we get airless to the storm itself , since the conditions models tend to converge on what will actually fall out within a day of the case . Until then , though , give the uncertainty in the model , ask snowfall and ice forecasts from your local soothsayer to unceasingly change .
you could prepare for the storm by adjusting your travelling plans so you ’re not out during the big coke and wind . Give road crew meter to make the roads before stake out . check that you have food for thought , water , and supply to get through an prolonged power outage , include blankets , candles , and batteries . Shoveling snow is an acute workout , so step yourself , and do n’t do more than you’re able to handle .
